En sammanhängande analys. Kan ett eldupphör möjligen bero på att både Israel och Iran har slut på resurser?

The twelve-day Israel–Iran war appears to have ended, with President Trump’s announcement that the two sides have agreed to a “total and complete” ceasefire. The details of the agreement are still unknown, beyond the fact that Iran is to cease its missile launches by 7:00AM on 24 June, Israeli time, while Israel is to end its air attacks on Iran by twelve hours later. This time lag, which allows Israel the last word in the war-making, is a further humiliation of the Islamist regime in Tehran. The Iranians ended their war-making with a flurry of ballistic missile salvos against civilian targets around Israel, scoring a deadly hit on a six-storey building in downtown Beersheba.

Overall, the war has ended in a resounding victory for Israel. Iran’s nuclear project, which Israel has viewed as an existential threat for decades, lies in ruins. The Israel Air Force (IAF) achieved complete control over Iran’s airspace and was able to devastate key military and governmental installations in Tehran and in western and central Iran at will. In addition, much of Iran’s ballistic missile force—missiles, launchers, production sites, and operators—has been destroyed by the IAF, with a little help from Mossad operatives, planted in Iran weeks before the Israeli offensive. Israel launched the war with only the vague support of Washington but, by its end, Washington and Jerusalem were in complete lockstep and it was the United States that put the finishing touches to the destruction of Iran’s nuclear installations by bombing Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.

But what will happen over the coming months and years is troublingly unclear.

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